Election polls: the chicken or the egg?

Lately I have been experiencing poll panic. But not for the reason that you probably think.

Not because I actually think that the McCain/Palin ticket has as much movement and support as the Obama/Biden ticket. But because I think that the polling process is a biased joke, and because I think that it actually does influence how motivated people are to vote.

Fear and discouragement are powerful tools to de-motivate participation.

Election polls are based primarily on telephone surveys. The bias/glich with the telephone survey is that the polls only have access to land line phone numbers. In other words, the polls only contain information from people who have home telephone numbers. Call me crazy, but in my mind, that does create a bias. In the world that I live in, people have cell phones, and those cell phones function as a home phones.

So basically, election polls have informed us that people who have land  line telephone numbers are split about 50/50. Which to me presents an assumption that the rest of us (and I am aware of how badly I am generalizing) who have more active, progressive lifestyles, (or merely can’t afford to pay a cell phone and a home phone bill every month), are not being asked about our political leanings.

So in my perfect world, this could make for an amazing ass-kicking election  for Obama where the “experts” are surprised by the huge influx of progressive votes. But then I remember that Bush got elected. Twice. So I am forced to wonder what happens to the rest of the people who are sick of the conservative agenda. Where do they go?

My theory (based only on my own observations with people I know) is that the polls end up influencing the election by creating a sense of powerlessness and discouragement for people who are not actively confident in their capacity to create political change.

So the myth is that the polls are representing the status of the candidates, and the truth is that the polls are affecting the public’s sense of their own power to participate in the political process.

So, to those of you out there who are considering throwing in the towel and letting the polls and other voters decide who will win this election…..don’t let the polls take you out…use that cell phone of yours and call your friends, talk about your stance and activate a greater more accurate conversation about who will be the best new candidate for our presidency.

Post a Comment

Your email is never published nor shared. Required fields are marked *

*
*